A r c h i v e d  I n f o r m a t i o n


Factors Related to College Enrollment

Executive Summary


As the returns to a college education have increased, there has been concern that access to postsecondary education (PSE) is not as widespread as is desired. Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS), a survey that follows more than 13,000 students from the eighth grade through the second year after high school, this study examines factors related to PSE enrollment. The emphasis is on how early indicators, such as expectations and course-taking behavior in the eighth grade, are related to college attendance six years later. We examine attendance at all types of PSE, and at 4-year public, 4-year private, less than 4-year public, and less than 4-year private institutions. However, we do not examine selectivity of institutions attended.

A secondary goal of the study is to examine whether financial aid availability is a critical factor in determining PSE attendance. We examine knowledge and attitudes toward financial aid and the relationship between such beliefs and PSE attendance. We also examine the effect of financial aid receipt on PSE attendance, as well as the effect of predicted financial aid amounts on PSE attendance.

WHO GOES TO COLLEGE?

We begin our analysis by examining the demographics of postsecondary school choice. All results here apply to the population of Spring 1988 eighth graders. Among our findings are:

  • A majority of students attend some type of PSE. By 1994, 63 percent of those in eighth grade in 1988 attend some type of PSE.

  • Students are most likely to attend a 4-year public or a less than 4-year public school. Overall, 24 percent of respondents attend a 4-year public institution, 11 percent attend a 4-year private institution, 24 percent attend a 2-year public college, and 3.5 percent attend a less than 4-year private institution. The remaining 37 percent do not attend PSE.

  • Native Americans, Blacks, and Hispanics are least likely to attend PSE and Asians/Pacific Islanders are most likely to attend PSE. While 79 percent of Asians attend PSE, 66 percent of Whites, 53 percent of Hispanics, 52 percent of Blacks, and 38 percent of Native Americans attend PSE.

We divide the sample into three approximately equal income and test score groups on the basis of family income and base year test score. We find the expected relationships between income, test score, and PSE attendance:

  • PSE attendance increases with family income. While nearly 44 percent of the bottom family income group attends PSE, 69 percent of the middle income group attends PSE, and 86 percent of the top income group attends PSE.

  • Even within the high test score group, income is still related to PSE attendance. However, these income differences are greatly reduced when test scores are controlled for. While 75 percent of those in the low income, top test score group attend PSE, 86 percent of those in the middle income, top test score group attend PSE, and 95 percent of those in the top income, top test score group attend PSE. One interesting finding is that low income, high test score students attend PSE at a higher rate than the high income, low test score individuals (75 percent versus 64 percent.)

  • Income effects are larger for low test score students than they are for high test score students. The difference in the rate of PSE attendance between top and bottom income groups in the bottom test group is 35 percentage points, while the difference in the top test score group is 20 percentage points.

  • For those in PSE, low income students are less likely to attend 4-year schools than higher income students, even among high test score students. While 65 percent of those individuals in the bottom income, top test score group who attend PSE attend a 4-year college, 69 percent of those in the middle income, top test score group and 82 percent of those in the top income, top test score group attend a 4-year college.

  • For those in PSE, low income students are disproportionately found in public institutions relative to higher income students, even within the group of high test score students. While 31 percent of low income, high test score students who attend 4-year institutions attend private schools; 39 percent of high income, high test score students attend private schools.

OTHER ACTIVITIES PURSUED AFTER HIGH SCHOOL

We also examine educational and other activities that respondents engage in after high school. We find that:

  • Lower income students are more likely to be working while in PSE than higher income students. While over 45 percent of the top income, top test score group takes academic courses and does not work, 28 percent of the middle income, top test score group, and only 19 percent of the low income, low test score group takes academic courses and does not work.

  • Those in the bottom income, top test score group are most likely to enter the armed forces. While 4 percent of those in the bottom income, top test score group enter the military, 2 percent of those in the middle income, top test score group, and less than 1 percent of those in the top income, top test score group enter the military.

REASONS WHY STUDENTS DO NOT ATTEND PSE

We next examine reasons students give for not attending PSE. Some of the key results are:

  • Non-financial reasons for not planning to attend PSE are similar across the income spectrum. All of the groups of students are most likely to report that they do not plan to attend PSE because they plan to take time off before continuing their education.

  • Low income students are more likely than higher income students to report that they cannot afford school and that they have to support their families. Of those students who say they do not plan to attend PSE immediately after high school, 57 percent of the bottom income, top test score students report that it is because they cannot afford to attend, 38 percent of the middle income, top test students give this reason, and 21 percent of the top income, top test score students give this reason.

FACTORS RELATED TO PSE ATTENDANCE

Three factors that we expect to be related to PSE attendance are educational expectations, course-taking behavior, and behavioral variables. We find that:

    Educational Expectations

  • Educational expectations are highly correlated with PSE attendance. While 19 percent of those who expect in the eighth grade to just graduate from high school actually attend PSE, 73 percent of those who in eighth grade expect to obtain a bachelor's degree attend college, and 83 percent of those who expect to obtain a master's degree or higher attend college.

    Course-Taking Behavior

  • Even those low income students who take rigorous academic high school programs are still less likely to attend PSE. However, differences by income are fairly small when high school program type is accounted for. While 12.5 percent of the bottom income students in the rigorous academic program do not attend any PSE, 7 percent of the middle income students and 3.6 percent of the top income students in the rigorous high school program do not attend PSE.

  • When taking geometry is accounted for, income effects on PSE attendance diminish, but are still present. Among those students who take geometry, 94 percent of the high income students, 84 percent of the middle income students, and 71 percent of the bottom income students attend PSE.

  • Low income students who take advanced math and science courses are more likely to attend PSE than low income students who do not take these courses. While 76 percent of low income students who took algebra II in high school went to college, only 32 percent of low income students who did not take algebra II went to college.

  • Individuals in the top family income group are more likely than those in the lower income groups to take the math and science courses associated with PSE attendance. Only 46 percent of low income students took geometry in school, while 69 percent of middle income students and 82 percent of high income students did.

    Behavioral Variables

  • Individuals who use drugs or alcohol, spend more time watching television, cut classes, and spend less time doing homework are less likely to attend PSE. Of those 10th graders who reported using marijuana more than twice in the past 12 months, 48 percent went to PSE while 69 percent of the 10th graders who did not report using marijuana attended PSE.

  • Students who are married, have children, or expect these events by age 21 are less likely to attend PSE than those who do not. For those students who expected to be married by age 21, 46 percent went on to PSE. This compares to 76 percent of those students who did not expect to be married by age 21.

Next we examined the relationship between these factors and PSE attendance in a multivariate framework. This allows us to examine the effect of each factor on college attendance after controlling for all of the other factors in the model. A multivariate model estimates the marginal effect that an independent variable, such as parental education, has on a dependent variable (whether the students attends PSE) holding all other independent variables constant. The following are some of the statistically significant results:

  • Gender: Other things equal, women are more likely to attend PSE than are men.

  • Income: Students in higher income groups are more likely to attend PSE.

  • Parents' Education: Students whose parents had higher education levels are more likely to attend PSE.

  • Academic Preparation and Course-Taking Results: Students with higher standardized test scores, who took college preparatory classes, and who attend Catholic or other types of private schools are more likely to attend PSE.

  • Expectations and Behavioral Results: Students who have higher educational expectations, who do not have children, and who do not use marijuana are more likely to attend PSE.

  • Low Income, High Test Score Student Results: Factors that are more important for this group than for the entire group of students are watching television, spending more time on homework, and living in an urban area. While watching television and living in an urban area are negatively related to PSE attendance, spending more time on homework is positively related to PSE attendance. Low income, high test score students who watch fewer hours of television, spend more time on homework, or do not live in an urban area are more likely to attend PSE, but this is not true for the sample as a whole.

When we separately model the five distinct PSE attendance choices in a multivariate framework, we find that:

  • Demographic Results: Women are more likely than men to attend all four types of schools, but the largest difference is seen in the less than 4-year private schools. Controlling for other factors, Blacks are more likely than Whites to attend 4-year private institutions. Respondents whose parents received a bachelor's degree or higher are most likely to attend a 4-year private institution.

  • Academic Preparation and Course-Taking Results: Higher test scores, taking college preparatory courses, being in a college preparatory program, and expecting a bachelor's degree or higher are associated with increased attendance at all four types of schools, but increase the likelihood of attending a 4-year private institution by the largest amount.

THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL AID

We next examine parental attitudes toward college expenses and financial aid. We expect that their views are likely to have an effect on students' expectations about their education, and, ultimately, their PSE attendance. Among our findings:

  • A number of parents believe that availability of information on financial aid is insufficient, but the percentage declines as income increases. Nearly one-quarter of the parents say that they have not been able to get much information about financial aid. While 25 percent of those in the top test score, bottom income group say that they have not been able to get much information on how to apply for financial aid, 21 percent of those in the top test score, middle income group and 14 percent of those in the top test score, top income group gave this response.

  • There appears to be a relationship between parental attitudes toward financial aid and PSE attendance. While 27 percent of bottom income, bottom test score group students whose parents say they do not see any way of getting enough money for college attend PSE, 35 percent whose parents say this is false or have not thought about it attend PSE. Similarly, while 43 percent of bottom income, middle test score students whose parents say that they do not see any way of getting enough money for college attend PSE, 56 percent of those who say this is false or have not thought about it, attend PSE.

Students and their parents can learn about financial aid by several avenues. These include talking to teachers, counselors, school representatives, or loan officers, and reading information from the U.S. Department of Education, from high schools or colleges, or from the military. We studied the extent to which students and their parents take advantage of these resources, and found that:

  • Middle income parents are most likely to use these resources. While 55 percent of bottom income parents spoke to someone about financial aid, 67 percent of middle income parents spoke to someone, and 62 percent of top income parents spoke to someone.

  • In some cases, the use of financial aid information has a strong relationship to knowledge about financial aid. While 26 percent of parents who did not read information about financial aid say that they did not apply for financial aid because they did not know how, only 13 percent of parents who did read information give this reason. While 24 percent of parents who did not read information about financial aid said they had not been able to get much information about how to apply for financial aid, only 15 percent of those who did read information gave this as a reason for not applying for financial aid.

  • Of those planning to attend PSE in the 12th grade, students with parents who talk or read about financial aid are more likely to attend PSE than those with parents who do not act to obtain information about financial aid. While 80 percent of students whose parents speak to someone about financial aid attend PSE, only 54 percent of students whose parents do not speak to someone about financial aid attend PSE.

Next we examine the effect of being offered financial aid on PSE attendance. We compare PSE attendance for those students who apply, are accepted, apply for financial aid, and are offered aid at private 4-year institutions with those students who apply, are accepted, apply for financial aid, but are not offered financial aid at private 4-year institutions. The same analyses are done for public 4-year institutions. We find that:

  • Respondents who are offered financial aid at private 4-year institutions are more likely to attend private 4-year institutions than are respondents who apply, are accepted, and apply for aid, but are not offered aid at private 4-year institutions. While 72 percent of those who are offered aid at private 4-year institutions attend private 4-year institutions, only 61 percent of those who are not offered aid at private 4-year institutions attend this type of PSE.

  • Respondents who are not offered aid at private 4-year institutions are more likely to attend public 4-year institutions than those who are offered aid at private 4-year institutions. While 15 percent of those who are offered aid at private 4-year institutions attend public 4-year institutions, 20 percent of those who are not offered aid at private 4-year institutions attend public 4-year institutions.

  • Being offered financial aid at a private 4-year institution does not appear to be related to the decision of whether or not to attend any type of PSE. While 3 percent of those who are offered aid at a private 4-year institution do not attend PSE, 5 percent of those who are not offered aid at a private 4-year institution do not attend PSE.

  • Respondents who are offered financial aid at public 4-year institutions are more likely to attend public 4-year institutions than are respondents who apply, are accepted, and apply for aid, but are not offered aid at public 4-year institutions. While 77 percent of those who are offered aid at public 4-year institutions attend public 4-year institutions, only 68 percent of those who are not offered financial aid at public 4-year institutions attend public 4-year institutions.

  • Low income respondents who are not offered financial aid at public 4-year institutions are more likely not to attend any type of PSE. While 4 percent of bottom income students who are offered financial aid at 4-year public institutions do not attend PSE, 13 percent of bottom income students who are not offered financial aid at 4-year public institutions do not attend PSE.

  • High income respondents who are not offered aid at public 4-year institutions are more likely to attend less than 4-year public institutions. While 14 percent of top income students who are offered financial aid at public 4-year institutions attend less than 4-year public institutions, 22 percent of top income students who are not offered financial aid at 4-year public institutions attend less than 4-year public institutions.

We next employ a modeling framework to examine the effect of financial aid on PSE attendance at public and private 4-year institutions. We find that:

  • Private 4-Year Institutions: In a multivariate framework, respondents who are offered financial aid at a private 4-year institution are more likely to attend a private 4-year institution than those who apply, are accepted, apply for aid but are not offered aid at a private 4-year institution.

  • Public 4-Year Institutions: In a multivariate framework, respondents who are offered financial aid at a public 4-year institution are more likely to attend a public 4-year institution than those who apply, are accepted, apply for aid but are not offered aid at a public 4-year institution.

The prior analysis was limited to only a small sample of students who apply to PSE, are accepted, and apply for financial aid. For example, of our full sample of respondents included in our multivariate model of who goes to college, 7 percent are included in this analysis of the effects of financial aid availability at private four-year institutions and 14 percent are included in the 4-year public institutional analysis.

Since the above analysis does not address the effect of financial aid on the decision to first apply to PSE and then apply for financial aid, it is necessary to impute financial aid awards for all students. To examine the effect of financial aid on PSE attendance for all students, predictions of financial aid eligibility are made using the National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS). Using these predicted aid levels, we find that:

  • Predicted amounts of financial aid, whether via regressions or a matching technique, have no statistically significant effect on PSE attendance. The reason may be that expected financial aid does not affect PSE attendance, that financial aid does not vary much for families with similar financial characteristics, or that data limitations preclude doing a good job of predicting financial aid.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

The strong correlation between educational expectations (even in the eighth grade), high school curriculum, and PSE attendance points to the importance of early intervention for PSE attendance. Students form their educational expectations early, and courses taken early on in high school and junior high (or middle school) are closely related to PSE attendance. This indicates that the end of high school may be too late a time to inform students of the importance of a college education. Rather, information on the importance of college and the course requirements for college admission should be distributed to students and their parents as early as possible in the educational system. In general, efforts should be made to ensure that the low income students are kept in the college preparatory track, that they take math and science courses, and that homework is stressed.

Evidence also shows the importance of financial aid knowledge, information, and receipt on PSE attendance. A full one-quarter of the parents said they had not been able to get enough information about financial aid in the eighth grade, and about a quarter of the low income parents did not apply for financial aid because they did not know how to apply. This suggests that information on the financial aid process should be made available to students and their parents as early as possible in the educational system. Both the descriptive findings and the multivariate model results show that even after holding academic preparation and other factors constant, income effects remain. This implies that financial constraints for attending college are more binding for the low income students, even controlling for various academic characteristics, and that public policy has a role to play in alleviating some of these constraints.

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Last modified -- September 14, 1998 (lyp)