A r c h i v e d I n f o r m a t i o nA Back to School Special Report on the Baby Boom Echo: No End in Sight (August 19, 1999)
General Projection Methodology
Total enrollment is projected using expected grade retention rates and college enrollment rates drawn from institutional data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES); demographic data and population projections from the Bureau of the Census; and historical and projected economic data from Standard & Poor's DRI Economic Forecasting Service. Grade retention rate (cohort survival), exponential smoothing, and multiple linear regression are the major projection techniques used to forecast these rates.
For school enrollment, the grade retention rates were projected using exponential smoothing. State-level public school enrollment projections were based on the grade retention rate and the enrollment rate methods, yielding a composite projection that takes into account shifts in state migration patterns. Individual state governments produce projections based on additional or alternative factors which may lead to more accurate projections for their own state. The NCES state projections program is designed to use a consistent model for all states that enables state to state comparisons.
For college enrollment, the age-specific enrollment rates were projected using econometric models by taking into account the effects of demographic changes and economic conditions. For graduates of public high schools by state, projections were developed on the basis of grade 12 enrollment.
Demographic assumptions used by NCES are consistent with Bureau of the Census middle series of population projections which assumes a fertility rate of 2.10 births per woman by the year 2009, a net immigration of 820,000 per year, and a further reduction in the mortality rate. Economic assumptions for disposable income and unemployment rates are consistent with from Standard & Poor's DRI long-term forecast scenario.
For more information on the methodological details on the assumptions and methods used to develop these projections, and details on data sources, see Projections of Education Statistics to 2009, pages 125 through 128.
Last Updated -- August 19, 1999, (smj)