Indeed, the population growth is already well underway. This September, 53 million children will enter public and private elementary and secondary schools in the United States--the highest enrollment in U.S. history and a net increase of 8 million schoolchildren in the last 15 years. College enrollment is also at a record high-up 2.9 million during this 15-year period. Over the next five years enrollments at all levels of education will grow--to an estimated 53.5 million in grades K-12 and to 16.1 million at American colleges and universities.

The Echo Comes of Age

The children entering school in the coming decade are direct descendents of the Baby-Boom Echo--the expanding birth rate begun in 1977 when millions of young adults born between 1948 and 1975 began to have children themselves. These children, who are entering school between 2000 and 2010, are the grandchildren of the Baby Boomers, as well as the children of the increasing number of families immigrating to the United States in the last 20 years.

During the next 10 years this trend will continue at a stable pace. While it will affect every sector of the country, western and southern states--including California and Texas, two of the nation's largest--will experience the most pronounced growth. Public school enrollment in California, for example, will increase by 278,000 students, the majority of them (148,000) high school students. Enrollments in Texas will rise by 219,000. In addition, many smaller states also anticipate jumps in enrollment: Idaho (14 percent); New Mexico (12 percent); Nevada (12 percent); and Alaska (10 percent).

This record growth in the student population will translate to new demands on colleges and universities, which are already feeling the pressure. Full-time college enrollment is projected to increase by 19 percent in the next 10 years. The state university system of Florida expects up to 100,000 additional students by 2010.

The consequences of this enrollment crescendo will not immediately overwhelm the education system. In fact, enrollment in elementary and secondary schools will briefly stabilize between 2005 and 2010 before a rise that is expected to continue for the remainder of the century. Unlike the 20th century, when enrollment rose and dipped repeatedly, growth in the 21st century will be constant. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of school-age children 5 to 17 years old will increase by 6 percent. In 2020, about 55 million children will be enrolled in our nation's schools and this number will rise to 60 million by 2030.

Diversity Will Dominate

Just as the student population boom of this century will vary by region, it will also reflect the nation's overall changing demographics in the decades to come. Nationally, the white, non-ethnic population will not increase at the same rates as Hispanic, Asian and African-American families. Between 2000 and 2020, the number of white non-Hispanic children is expected to decrease, while the number of minority children is expected to rise. For example, the number of Hispanic children is expected to increase from 7.9 million to 12.7 million, an increase of 60 percent.

National Center for Education Statistics Condition of America's Public School Facilities: 1999 In June 2000, the National Center for Education Statistics released the latest report on the condition of public schools. Three-quarters of all schools reported the need to spend money on repairs, renovations, and modernization to bring their school buildings into good overall condition. The estimated cost to renovate and modernize these schools is $127 billion. Additionally, the report found that one in four schools reported that at least one type of on-site building was in less than adequate condition. Approximately one-fifth of schools indicated less than adequate conditions for life safety features, roofs, and electric power. Forty-three percent of the schools reported that at least one of six environmental factors was in unsatisfactory condition. About one-third (36 percent) of schools indicated that they used portable classrooms.

Challenges in the Cities

Much of the enrollment growth of the last 15 years has taken place in large metropolitan regions of the country. That pattern will likely continue in many of those urban areas. For example, the Los Angeles Unified School District, the second largest in the country, projects a shortfall of 85,900 desks within the next six years when enrollments are expected to rise from 711,000 students in 2000 to about 750,000 students by 2005. Already in some classrooms, there are twice as many children as there are desks. Some 15,000 schoolchildren must ride buses each day because there is no room at their home school. School officials predict they will have to build 100 new schools in the next 10 years and need to hire an additional 4,000 teachers every year through at least 2005.

In Miami, one of the busiest "gateway" points for new immigrants as well as a center of southern migration, the schools in Dade County are overflowing. Enrollment increased by 32 percent between 1988 and 1998, adding 84,550 students to the rolls. According to Miami-Dade officials, 41 percent of their schools are at least 150 percent over capacity, and 84,000 students attend school in portable classrooms. The school system has to build one elementary school a month just to keep up with the influx of new immigrants.

The phenomenon extends to other metropolitan communities across the country. In the last 10 years, Las Vegas, Nevada, for example, has seen its school enrollment double from some 100,000 students to more than 200,000, making the Clark County School District the eighth largest school district in the country. About 18,300 young children will enter first grade there in the coming year, the largest number of students enrolled in any grade.

The school population in Las Vegas is slated to continue its rapid increase in the coming decade, requiring the city to build new schools for an additional 150,000 students by 2010. Prompted by those projections, voters in Clark County approved in 1998 a $1 billion bond issue that will provide for 88 new schools and remodel current facilities, as well as help recruit 1,200 additional teachers.

Even systems that had declining populations in recent years face demands to reopen or build new schools and classrooms. For example, Boston, Massachusetts, which has closed some schools in inner-city neighborhoods twenty years ago, must again accommodate a growing number of school-age children in those repopulated areas as well as those in other parts of the city.

The Need for School Construction and Renovation in Rural America One-fourth of all children in America go to school in rural America and many of these children live in poverty. Of the 250 poorest counties in the United States, 244 are rural. Rural school districts face a persistent challenge in recruiting teachers, paying higher transportation costs and gaining access to the Internet. Many rural school districts also face a declining tax base and remain hard pressed to renovate existing schools. According to the recent report of the National Center for Education Statistics, 78 percent of all schools in rural America need to be repaired and modernized. Nearly one-half (47 percent) of all schools in rural America have unsatisfactory environmental conditions. Over 30 percent report inadequate heating, ventilation, and air conditioning. Schools in rural areas and small towns were more likely than schools in urban fringe areas and large towns to report that at least one of their environmental conditions was unsatisfactory (NCES 1999).

Illinois has led the Midwest region of the country in rising enrollment over the last 10 years. Enrollment has increased by 13.4 percent, and much of that enrollment has been concentrated in the Chicago metropolitan area. As a result, the Chicago Public Schools launched a $2.6 billion Capital Improvement Program in 1996. It is the largest school district construction and renovation project. Since 1996, the Capital Improvement Program has completed or has underway 13 new schools, 29 additions, and 27 annexes, and financed 1,125 renovation projects.

TWO STATES BEGIN MASSIVE SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION EFFORT OHIO In 1997, the Ohio Supreme Court found that construction for Ohio schools was underfunded and the State created the Ohio School Facilities Commission to modernize Ohio's schools. Since then, Ohio has enacted the $23 billion, 12-year "Rebuilding Ohio's Schools" plan. The state will provide $10.2 billion over the next 12 years which, when combined with matching contributions from the Local Education Agencies, will total $23 billion. By 2012, the "Rebuilding Ohio's Schools" program will have fully funded the state's share for every school building need across the state. To help ensure that these Ohio school construction funds generate the best possible outcomes for education, the KnowledgeWorks Foundation in Cincinnati has partnered with the U.S. Department of Education to provide guidance on building "schools as centers of community." KnowledgeWorks is providing school facility planning grants as well as technical assistance to help school districts modernize their facilities. If the Building Better Schools - Johnson-Rangel School Modernization Bonds (H.R. 4094) were enacted, Ohio could issue nearly $1 billion in interest-free school construction bonds, which would potentially free up one-half of that amount for further school construction and renovation. [U.S. Department of Education, Budget Service] NEW JERSEY Earlier this summer, New Jersey initiated the largest, most comprehensive school construction program in the nation. The Educational Facilities Construction and Financing Act makes $8.6 billion available to school districts. To receive funds, all school districts must prepare and submit a long-range facilities plan to the commissioner of education by December 15, 2000. The document must detail the district's school facilities needs and how it will address those needs over the next five years. The commissioner will review a district's proposed project to determine whether it complies with the facilities efficiency standards and the district's long-range plan. If the commissioner approves a district's project, state funding will be available once the district secures financing for the local share of the project. [New Jersey Department of Education, http://www.state.nj.us/education] If the Building Better Schools - Johnson-Rangel School Modernization Bonds (H.R. 4094) were enacted, New Jersey could issue over $660 million in interest-free school construction bonds, which would potentially free up one-half of that amount for further school construction and renovation. Of this amount, $178 million in interest-free bonds would be separately allocated to four cities. [U.S. Department of Education, Budget Service]

No Escape in the Suburbs

The school growth phenomenon is not just an urban development. Suburban and ex-urban communities are experiencing growing pains as well. For example, the suburban counties surrounding Atlanta, Georgia, where the state's overall 25 percent jump in enrollment has been concentrated, have born the brunt of the intense enrollment pressures. Suburban Gwinnett County, the eighth fastest-growing school district in the nation, saw its enrollment increase by 67 percent between 1988 and 1998, and some 4,000 new students enter the school system each year. Meanwhile, nearby Cobb County expects an enrollment increase of 39 percent, growing from 65,578 students in 1988 to 91,208 students in 1998. At the same time, enrollment in Atlanta city schools grew by 60 percent between 1988 and 1998.

The suburban counties surrounding our nation's capital, Washington, D.C., have also grown remarkably in the last 10 years. Prince George's and Montgomery counties in Maryland join neighboring Fairfax County in Virginia as three of the fastest-growing school districts in the nation. Montgomery County saw its enrollment grow by 30 percent between 1988 and 1998. To keep pace with continuing enrollment pressures, the county needs to recruit 1,200 new teachers for the coming school year. This constitutes the largest number of new hires for the opening of school in the history of the county. Fairfax County expects to hire 2,050 new teachers, up 68 percent from two years ago.

Over 132,000 students attend school in Prince George's County, Maryland, the first majority African-American suburban county in the United States. Between 1988 and 1998, enrollment grew by 24 percent, and the county expects to continue growing rapidly in the coming decade. As a result, over the next 10 years, Prince George's County, Maryland projects an unfunded need for $86.2 million for school facilities.

School enrollment in neighboring Fairfax County, Virginia, which has a different socio-economic population, is nevertheless facing similar challenges. As enrollment increases to 160,966 students in the coming year, the county expects to use 788 portable classrooms to accommodate them in the coming school year. In next four years, Fairfax will need 500 additional classrooms, amounting to more than $200 million in added facilities. And, as in many school districts, the impact affects all operations in the school system. For example, the system is facing a severe shortage of bus drivers, which has forced the county school system to offer bonuses to new drivers and to any county employee who recruits a new driver.

Meeting the Challenges of the Coming Century

As theUnited States embraces the new generations and new arrivals to our schools, we must be prepared to be able to provide a quality education to all students. The challenges are great: overcrowded classrooms, a shortage of teachers, aging and unsafe schools. But we know how to overcome these challenges and ensure that America's schools will provide a world-class education so the next generations have the opportunities they deserve.

To help communities nationwide modernize their schools, President Clinton has called on Congress to pass his school construction proposals: $25 billion in School Modernization Bonds and $6.5 billion in Urgent School Renovation Loans and Grants.

$25 BILLION IN SCHOOL MODERNIZATION BONDS. In the U.S. House of Representatives, Reps. Charles Rangel (D-NY) and Nancy Johnson (R-CT) introduced bipartisan legislation (H.R. 4094) based on the president's proposal. In the Senate, Sen. Charles Robb has introduced a similar bill. The Johnson-Rangel America's Better Classrooms Act now has 226 cosponsors-more than half the members of the U.S. House of Representatives. The proposal would create $24.8 billion in school construction bonds that would be interest-free for school districts and would help modernize 6,000 schools nationwide.

• How School Modernization Bonds Work. Bondholders would receive federal tax credits rather than interest payments from school districts, allowing districts to borrow interest-free money for school construction. A similar mechanism has been used successfully for Qualified Zone Academy Bonds (QZABs). Districts could use these 15-year bonds to modernize existing schools as well as build new ones. The proposal would cost $2.4 billion over five years. The bill's innovative financing mechanism is a cost-effective approach to leveraging local construction that avoids a new bureaucracy. All decisions regarding which schools to build or repair would be left to states and local school districts.

• How Bonds Would Be Allocated. Of the $24.8 billion in school construction bonding authority: $2.4 billion would be allocated to expand the existing Qualified Zone Academy Bonds program, $400 million to Bureau of Indian Affairs schools, $13.2 billion to states based on enrollment, and $8.8 billion to the 125 school districts with the largest number of low-income children.

$6.5 BILLION IN LOANS AND GRANTS FOR URGENT REPAIRS. President Clinton proposed a $1.3 billion initiative to make $6.5 billion in grants and interest-free loans for emergency repairs at 5,000 schools a year. Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Rep. William Clay (D-MO) have introduced urgent school repair legislation.