A r c h i v e d  I n f o r m a t i o n

Introduction

The average education level of Americans has been increasing since the early years of the republic. At the end of the 19th century, there were far fewer high school graduates, relative to the population, than there are college graduates today, and high school graduates were regarded in somewhat the same light as college graduates were later on. In 1892, an influential committee on secondary schooling headed by Harvard president Charles W. Eliot wrote that the main function of secondary school was to:

prepare for the duties of life that small proportion of all children in the country?a proportion small in number but very important to the welfare of the nation?who show themselves able to profit by an education prolonged to the eighteenth year, and whose parents are able to support them while they remain so long at school (Sizer 1964).¹

Today, we wouldn't consider even college graduates "a proportion small in number," since they constitute more than one quarter of all 25-29-year-olds (27 percent). At the turn of the century, however, the median education level of white males was 8th grade, and high school graduation was still rare (Kroch and Sjoblom 1994). By 1920, just 22 percent of those between the ages of 25 and 29 were high school graduates. By 1940, some 38 percent of this age group had graduated from high school, but only 6 percent had bachelor's degrees. It was not until after World War II that the majority of young people graduated from high school. By mid-century, 53 percent of people age 25-29 were high school graduates, but just 8 percent were college graduates (Snyder et al. 1998). At that time, a high school diploma was generally regarded as the achievable standard required to get a good job and support a family.

Today, "some college" in either a 2-year or 4-year school has become the norm,² and many consider a bachelor's degree essential to economic success. Demand for college-level skills in the labor market is reflected in the college premium—the percentage by which the earnings of college graduates exceed those of high school graduates. The college premium shot up in the 1980s and remains high today. Newspaper reports of a high level of corporate recruiting on campuses and even at spring vacation playgrounds such as Fort Lauderdale are indications of the demand for college-level skills.

The supply of college graduates increased markedly in the late 1980s and the 1990s, no doubt in response to increased demand. In the six years between 1988 and 1994, the number of bachelor's degrees conferred annually by 4-year institutions increased 18 percent, from 995,000 to 1,169,000, while the population of 20?24 year-olds decreased 6 percent. We will call the growing inclination of young people to enroll in 4-year colleges, and the widespread public support for this educational path, "the college movement."

While most people consider college a worthwhile or even a necessary investment, some researchers and policy makers believe that there is too much emphasis on enrolling in 4-year colleges. For example, House Education and Labor Committee chairman William F. Goodling has said, "We're overselling college: the 4-year, traditional conception of a college education" (Stanfield 1997).³ Similarly, former Labor Department Secretary Robert Reich has argued that "too many families cling to the mythology that their child can be a success only if he or she has a college degree" (Stanfield 1997).⁴ Researchers Kenneth Gray and Edwin Herr (1996) have argued that 4-year colleges could better serve students in the lower two thirds of their classes by setting up two-year programs leading to technical degrees: "Unless post-high school technical education receives the nurturing it needs, it will continue to decline, depriving our less-than-top students of the opportunities they need for the success they deserve."⁵

The current debate echoes a more heated and broadly public argument in the 1970s about the value of higher education. In the early 1970s, there was a marked decline in the college premium, especially in the first job after college. Many researchers and educators saw the decline as evidence of "overeducation" in an excessively credential-conscious society. In effect, the argument went, the job market did not require all the education that was being produced. Richard Freeman's The Overeducated American (1976) found a glut of college graduates in the early 1970s. He predicted that the

period of severe "overeducation" is likely to last for about a decade, to be followed by a period of market balance at a lower plateau. In contrast to the past, higher education will be a "marginal" investment, not a sure "guarantee" to high salaries and occupational standing. . .⁶

He also predicted that with the decline in the value of education, individuals would search for alternative routes to economic advancement and that the reduced role of schooling in social mobility would lead to greater class conflict.

In a similar vein, Boris Blai (1983) argued that a growing imbalance between (increasing) education levels and actual skill requirements in the workplace created the potential for job dissatisfaction, decreased productivity, and ultimately a crisis in public confidence in the economic system. Ivar Berg's Education and Jobs: The Great Training Robbery (1970) maintained that the education system, and especially higher education, provided "sluice gates" through which well-to-do American youth were channeled into better paying jobs, regardless of their productivity, thereby maintaining and reinforcing an inequitable class structure. Berg argued for a shift in the allocation of public education funds from postsecondary to elementary and secondary education.

When the college premium rose sharply in the later 1980s, this strand of criticism was muted. However, with the high enrollment rates of the 1990s, critics were again arguing that there was too much emphasis on 4-year colleges and that more attention should be given either to improving secondary education or to practical, occupationally-oriented postsecondary education, especially at the subbaccalaureate level (e.g., Gray and Herr 1996). In contrast to Berg's contention that colleges screen out lower-class students, critics today tend to argue that growing numbers of college students with modest abilities might be better served by other forms of education.

The basic arguments of the college movement's critics are as follows:

2. Many young people who do not have the ability or educational preparation to perform well in 4-year colleges are being encouraged to enroll. Over the years, colleges have increasingly admitted students whose chances of doing well are slim. According to Harwood (1997a), "the 'mythology'. . .that a diploma equals economic success produces college enrollees who may have neither the academic aptitude nor the interest required for a degree . . Many students leave high school unprepared for college or the labor market. They are more or less forced into college to satisfy employers who...have a need for 'numerate-literate kids, but can't trust a high school diploma to mean anything on those grounds'."¹⁰ According to Gray and Herr (1996), "the 'one way to win' paradigm is not realistic, given [the] academic talents [of many young people] and labor market projections."¹¹ Stanfield (1997) notes that "many who enter the ivy-covered precincts are ill-prepared. Nearly four-fifths of institutions that accept freshmen say that they offer remedial courses, and nearly one-third of entering freshmen take at least one remedial course."¹²

3. Even with remedial programs, college dropout rates have become unacceptably high. Commenting on a Washington Post article on the low graduation rates among Georgetown University basketball players, Harwood (1997a) says, "the story here is not whether a handful of basketball players is out of place in the classroom, but whether millions of other college students are in the same boat." In another column (Harwood 1997b), he notes that "nearly half the students now attending college are already dropping out before completing their studies." Robert Reich observes that "sadly, far too many young people are going to college who are not finishing college, and who are finding that what they're being trained for in college has little or no relevance to getting a good job" (Stanfield 1997).¹³ Gray and Herr (1996) argue that "students ranking below the top third of their high school graduating class too often fail to earn a bachelor's degree if they enroll in college."¹⁴

4. Many college noncompleters do poorly in the labor market and would have been better off enrolling in-year colleges and occupational programs. In Stanfield's (1997) words, "hundreds of thousands of young Americans will embark on college educations—only to find frustration, failure, lots of debt, and the need...to learn something practical at a place without ivy."¹⁵ Gray and Herr (1996) believe that "students unlikely to earn a bachelor's degree need other ways to win . . ." In their opinion, "four-year institutions could better serve students from the bottom two-thirds of their high-school class by setting up programs that offer two-year associate's degrees in technical areas." They argue that technical jobs such as those for precision welders, avionics-repair technicians, radiology technicians, and professionally trained chefs are the "best places for students from the bottom two-thirds of their high school class to find 'other ways to win'."¹⁶ Harwood (1997b) makes a similar argument: "Community colleges. . .have a big role to play in the upgrading of the labor force." The demand for physical and occupational therapists, medical assistants, home and residential care aids, medical records technicians, and other specialists is growing rapidly. Efforts to expand community colleges "make more sense than the overemphasis on four-year college degrees for every child. . ." Stark, Jennings, and Halperin (n.d.) have this advice for college seniors contemplating college: "You have to have determination to stick it out, and if you are uncertain about your commitment to 4 years of college, you may want to think about pursuing an associate's degree from a community college or a certificate program from reputable trade or technical school. In today's society, it is not 'a bachelor's degree or bust'." ¹⁷,

5. Moreover, many college students—especially dropouts—are burdened with debt accumulated from loans that could have been avoided or minimized by choosing other education and training options. According to Gray and Herr (1996), "piling up debts from student loans hurts those who never finish college or who finish but are unemployed."¹⁸ Stanfield (1997) observes that "most dropouts are left with big debts and mediocre immediate job prospects."¹⁹ In Harwood's (1997a) opinion, an important factor in the college dropout rate is "the high cost of a college education and the accumulation of debt in the course of paying for it."

6.Many college graduates are not doing well in the labor market, either. Often, graduates find themselves in low-paying service jobs and other lines of work not traditionally associated with a college education. "Many of those who obtain a bachelor's degree discover it doesn't live up to its advertising" (Stanfield 1997).²⁰ "Even among college graduates, many will lose in the labor market" (Gray and Herr 1996).²¹

We will examine these arguments about the value of a four-year college education, drawing especially on the empirical literature of the last decade. Wherever possible, we will rely on studies based on systematic national data.

Executive Summary

The Growth of College Expectations