Attachment A Developing An Education Modeling System I. Introduction The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the organization within U.S. Department of Education that has the responsibility for producing projections of key education statistics. NCES develops projections of enrollments, graduates, earned degrees, classroom teachers, and education finance at both the elementary and secondary, and the higher education levels. These projections appear in the annual report entitled Projections of Education Statistics and are used in other reports by NCES and the U.S. Department of Education. In addition, NCES projections of education statistics are widely used by individuals in federal, state, and local governments, business, industry, education community, professional associations, and by the general public. NCES has a requirement to perform four types of activities to support its forecasting program. These activities are as follows: (1) expanding the capabilities of the NCES Education Modeling System through research and model development by reviewing the literature and developing new models to project national and state-level statistics in areas of enrollment, teachers, graduates and earned degrees, and expenditures; (2) enhancing the NCES Modeling System with additional programming capabilities to extract detailed projections from the model outputs to handle special requests; (3) procuring a subscription service for national and state historical and projected economic data; and (4) maintaining new enhancements to the forecasting system as required by other upgrades. II. Background In previous projects, NCES has converted the NCES methodology for projecting national and state-level education statistics to an integrated personal computer system. There are currently six integrated forecasting models used by NCES. They are: (1) the enrollment by age model; (2) the national elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates models; (3) the higher education enrollment model; (4) the higher education full-time-equivalent enrollment model; (5) the educational finance-classroom teachers-earned degrees conferred models; and (6) the public state elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates models. The models in the NCES Education Modeling System are very diverse in size and type of methodology. Some models have a large number of equations, while others may have only one. Some models are econometric models using various regression techniques; others are time series models using exponential smoothing methods. Most of the models are national level models with the exception of the state-level public elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates model. III. Scope of Work There are four major types of activities in this request for proposals. These activities shall involve the performance of a number of tasks including development of new forecasting models, extraction of data from existing forecasting models to provide detailed projections upon request, procurement of economic data and forecasts to be used for model estimation and forecasting; and maintenance of the NCES Education Modeling System to allow for program and software upgrades. A. Types of Activities 1. Expansion of the Capabilities of the NCES Modeling System. Through research and model development, the contractor shall develop new forecasting models that shall become part of the NCES Modeling System. Although these models shall be stand-alone models, they shall also be linked to existing models to the extent that they may share common data series. The contractor shall develop an analysis plan detailing how the work is to be done. Based on the approved analysis plan, the contractor shall determine data availability and conduct a literature search on state-of-the-art methodologies to project the education statistics of interest as specified in the task order. Based on the literature search, the contractor shall construct a database, specify and build a model (s), evaluate the performance of the model, and produce projections using the model. The contractor shall then prepare a documentation manuel of the model and provide NCES with two working copies of the model software which the contractor shall install on two NCES computers. A particular task order could address various topics related to national and state-level statistics in the areas of enrollment, teachers, graduates and earned degrees, and expenditures. 2. Enhancement of the NCES Education Modeling System. Currently the NCES Modeling System produces specific projections as shown in the tables of Projections of Education Statistics to 2008. A copy of this publication may be obtained from NCES, 555 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Room 408E, Washington, DC 20208. On a regular basis, NCES receives special requests for details related to these projections. For instance, the state enrollment model produces projected enrollment for grade groups K-8 and 9-12. In response to an Education Department official's request for projections of fourth graders in each state that would be available to take a proposed reading test, it would become necessary to extract the fourth graders from the grade group K-8. Using data files provided by NCES, the contractor shall develop procedures for extracting the single grade enrollments from the state model. 3. Procurement of an Economic Forecasting Service. Necessary inputs for producing NCES projections are historical and forecasted values of economic variables and analysis of the different sectors of the United States economy. In order to continue its projections program, NCES must receive thorough and timely data, projections and analysis of the United States economy at both the national and state levels. These data shall be acquired for each of the five years of the contract. This requirement shall consist of six parts: a) one subscription to a quarterly publication which presents analysis and long-term forecasts of the national economy; b) the placement of a macroeconomic model of the economy on one NCES personal computer; c) quarterly baseline, high and low forecasts for use with the macroeconomic model; d) historical values of some national economic variables; e) one subscription to a publication which presents analysis and long-term forecasts of the economy by region; and f) historical values and forecasts of some state economic variables. 4. Maintenance of the NCES Modeling System. From time to time, there shall be requirements to maintain and update the forecasting workstation as required by other program and software upgrades. These shall include but not be limited to converting models and modifying programs to accommodate system upgrades. For purposes of description, four types of activities have been considered separately. However, a particular task order may involve more than one type of activity. For example, developing a new model may require obtaining additional data and forecasts needed to estimate the new model and produce resultant projections. Examples of possible Task Orders for the types of activities are included in appendices A and B. B. Task Order Description 1. Task Order The contracting officer (CO) shall provide the contractor with a short task order (2-5) pages to initiate each task. Each task order will describe the following: a. the topic for the task; b. scope of work and type (s) of activities desired, including available background information; c. a general description of the format of the expected product; and d. the time schedule 2. Contractor Analysis Plan The contractor shall prepare an analysis plan indicating how they propose to proceed with the task. The work plan shall include the following: a. personnel loading; b. proposed process, including approach, task to be completed, quality control, and accuracy; c. schedule; and d. description of product 3. Contractor Official Technical Representative The contractor official technical representative (COTR) shall review the contractor's proposed analysis plan. The contractor shall proceed with the task only upon the written approval of the contracting officer. 4. Consistency of Financial Information The contractor shall report personnel and financial information in a manner that reflects agreement among the different reports. This shall include person loading reports, vouchers, and monthly reports. 5. COTR Review of Drafts and Final Product(s) The COTR shall review the draft product (s). Upon COTR's written approval, within 2 weeks after receipt of product, the contractor shall prepare final product (s). 6. COTR Review of Draft and Final Computer Program(s) or Software The COTR shall review the draft computer program (s) or software. Upon COTR's written approval, within 2 weeks after receipt of program or software, the contractor shall prepare final computer program (s) and software. 7. Installation of Computer Program(s) or Software on NCES Computers Upon COTR's written approval of the final products, the contractor shall install the final computer program (s) or software on two NCES computers within one week. As noted on page 3, the macroeconomic model shall be placed on only one NCES computer. IV. Deliverables The contractor shall deliver five (5) printed copies of the written materials (including documentation) and two (2) copies of computer programs or software produced under each Task Order. More specifically: 1. The contractor shall deliver to the contracting officer an analysis plan for each Task order issued, as noted in Section III. B(2) of this statement of work. 2. The contractor shall deliver to the COTR draft and final products in accord with an approved analysis plan, as noted in Section III. B (5) of this Statement of Work. 3. The contractor shall deliver to the COTR two copies of the computer programs or software produced under a Task Order as noted in Section III. B(6). 4. The contractor shall install the computer program (s) or software on two of NCES personal computers and the macroeconomic model on one NCES computer as noted in Section III. B(7). V. Schedule for Deliverables Timing may vary from project to project, depending upon the nature of the task order. A typical schedule for developing a new forecasting model might be as follows: Initial Meeting 1 week after receipt of task order from contracting officer Analysis Plan 2 weeks after receipt of task order from contracting officer Draft Model 12 weeks after CO approval of analysis plan Final Model 2 weeks after NCES approval of Draft Model A typical schedule for refining an existing model to provide additional details from the model not previously reported might be as follows: Initial Meeting 1 week after receipt of task order from contracting officer Analysis Plan 2 weeks after receipt of task order from contracting officer Draft Procedures 2 weeks after CO approval of analysis plan Final Procedures 2 weeks after NCES approval of Draft Procedures A typical schedule for procuring a subscription for a forecasting service to provide estimates and forecasts of economic data might be as follows: Initial Meeting 1 week after receipt of task order from contracting officer Final Product 8 weeks after initial meeting with NCES A typical schedule for providing maintenance for the forecasting system to make adjustments because of computer or software upgrades might be as follows: Initial Meeting 1 week after receipt of task order from contracting officer Analysis Plan 2 weeks after receipt of task order from contracting officer Draft Upgrade 2 weeks after CO approval of analysis plan Final Upgrade 2 weeks after NCES approval of Draft Product VI. General Requirements 1. The contractor shall have qualified staff who are familiar with education, economics, and public policy. 2. The contractor shall have an expert knowledge of advanced forecasting methodologies. 3. The contractor shall have organizational experience in developing large-scale macroeconomic models. 4. The contractor shall have ready access to economic databases and forecasts.